Introduction to Google’s AI Overviews
Google’s AI Overviews have been a topic of discussion in the tech world, with many wondering if they actually change how people use Search. In a previous analysis, it was found that while users visit Google more frequently with AI Overviews, they spend less time per visit and don’t craft significantly longer or more complex queries.
The Promise of AI Overviews
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai has repeatedly claimed that AI Overviews will "grow traffic to the ecosystem." This claim has been made in multiple forums, with Pichai stating that AI Overviews will increase usage and drive more traffic to the web. But is this claim actually true?
Examining the Data
To examine this claim, a study was conducted analyzing over 5 billion search queries across multiple markets. The data included average time on site, searches per session, and visits per user on Google.com, as well as a comparison of keywords with and without AI Overviews. The results showed that AI Overviews actually raise zero-click share from 72% to 76%. This means that a larger share of queries never "get back to the web."
Zero-Click Searches
Zero-click searches are searches where the user finds the answer they need directly on the search engine results page, without clicking on any links. The data showed that many keywords that grew in zero-clicks after AI Overviews were launched also had zero-clicks before the launch. However, after the rollout, there was a clear increase in zero-clicks for AIO keywords, with a plateau in November 2024 at 76% (up from 71.4% in April 2024).
The Impact on Publishers
The growth of zero-click searches has significant implications for publishers, who rely on ad impression volume to generate revenue. Search queries without AI Overviews result in twice as many pageviews as those with AI Overviews. This means that AIOs send less traffic to the ecosystem overall, leading to fewer pageviews.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the data does not support Google’s claim that AI Overviews will "grow traffic to the ecosystem." While AI Overviews may drive more traffic to certain keywords, they also lead to more zero-click searches, which means that users are not clicking on links to visit websites. This has significant implications for publishers and the web ecosystem as a whole. The rise of AI Overviews may be a disruption to the relationship between Google and the open web, rather than an evolution of Search.